Saying you’re doing a good job doesn’t make it so

There is a frustration in Prime Minister Christopher Luxon that reminds me of David Shearer when he succeeded Phil Goff as Leader of the Opposition. 

Christopher Luxon and David Shearer are very different men to be sure: however, both had impressive careers before entering politics, were shoulder-tapped to enter parliament, and on arrival seemed completely bemused as to why their leadership style wasn’t landing with the public.

When I used to run through media briefings with David Shearer he would spin around on his office chair in a sort of restless frustration. We’re told Prime Minister Christopher Luxon taps his toes and guzzles Pepsi Max. That’s not to say he’s not focused, but points to a kind of nervous energy and impatience that comes through in the way he communicates.

Leaders of the Opposition can be listless. But Prime Ministers don’t get to be impatient. 

To be impatient suggests you are beholden to others, that there is an agenda being set and not by you. No, Prime Ministers must set the tone as well as the pace of politics.

Prime Ministers John Key and Jacinda Ardern did this well. Each had their own ways of short-circuiting discussion that wasn’t going in the direction they wanted, for Key it was humour; like that time he silenced press by blurting out he had had a vasectomy. For Ardern, it was being across her brief. She was almost always better prepared than the person interviewing her. That preparation gave her breathing room to think about the questions she truly didn’t have answers for, rather than using her headspace to recite rote-learned messaging. 

Christopher Luxon’s messaging isn’t landing. The latest political polls -  which give opposition parties a boost following an historic hīkoi - have only made matters worse for the Prime Minister.

On the eve of the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), he’s yet to announce a replacement for Chief Press Secretary Hamish Rutherford and while he has seasoned and respected practitioners in his office like Deputy Chief of Staff Julie Ash he’s still down a Joe or so.

Economic forecasts should be PM Luxon’s happy place. National Party Prime Ministers are traditionally at their best when speaking on the economy and HYEFU should be an opportunity to send New Zealanders into the summer break with some silver-linings after a hard year.

But if the PM’s recent interview on Q&A with Jack Tame is anything to go by, he can’t bank on his media strategy lifting his fortunes.

Jack Tame approached the interview like a journalist who’d waited all year for the opportunity, as indeed he had. He dove into economic analysis, Crown-Māori relations and climate action. The Prime Minister responded with some sound framing, for example raising the conversation on his wayward coalition partners back up to MMP. He had some good key messages, particularly on economic management, but didn’t achieve cut-through with any of it. It was tense. Frustrated. Underwhelming to listen to.

The PM’s focus was on explaining his plan and explaining is losing.

Right now, even when the PM is in his economic wheelhouse, there is an air of political desperation in his voice:  “We’re working incredibly hard”; “we’re doing everything we can”. This is defensive language for someone 12 months in. It’s language you might use to give an uneasy board certainty. Voters on the other hand know there is no such thing: they’re looking for an X-Factor.

Which takes me to my primary point: what drives the Prime Minister? Many pundits are reserving their judgement. But if Luxon can’t tell us who he is in a way that sticks, other people will.

The public needs something more from him than just being the guy who used to run an airline. The people Kiwis connect with at Air New Zealand are the cabin crew, the pilots, the characters in the safety videos. They're the people who give us the warm fuzzies about our national airline. Not whichever chief executive is delivering results to annual meetings.

Any communicator worth their salt will tell you there is always a gap between what you want to say and what your audience needs to hear. That’s where the work is. That’s politics.